Abstract:
Landscape connectivity is a critical factor influencing the survival and ecological roles of large terrestrial herbivores within
dynamic ecosystems. Yet, the increasing fragmentation of habitats due to human activities, such as agricultural expansion and
infrastructure development, disrupts natural movement patterns and limits access to essential resources. This is particularly concerning
in mesic protected areas, where moderate rainfall supports diverse vegetation but is often bordered by human-dominated
landscapes. To address this challenge, the use of Spatial Absorbing Markov Chain (SAMC) provides a robust framework to simulate
the African savannah elephant (Loxodonta africana) dispersal and identify critical connectivity nodes within fragmented
landscapes. Additionally, assessing and understanding the regenerative potential of these landscapes is vital for evaluating their
capacity to sustain wildlife populations and maintain ecological balance. The objectives of this study were to (i) model the ecological
connectivity of Mana Pools National Park (MPNP) by assessing spatial and functional linkages among African savannah
elephant herds and (ii) predict the regenerative potential of the park's range. We used multi-temporal
satellite data (2003, 2013,
and 2023), GPS collar data, road transects, and plot-based
surveys. The study employed a cellular automata artificial neural network
(CA-ANN)
to forecast the regenerative potential of the range. Connectivity maps illuminated vital pathways that sustain
the elephants' migratory and foraging behaviours, underscoring the holistic interplay of land cover, slope, and terrain in shaping
movement patterns. The study identified core micro-corridors
and broader sub-landscape
linkages essential for maintaining the
park's ecological vitality. This interconnectedness serves as a testament to the resilience and regenerative power of the semi-arid
savannah. CA-ANN
projections predicted a high landscape regenerative capacity by the year 2083. Highlighting diverse
geographical priorities for connectivity conservation, the research advocates for integrated, multi-scale
actions to preserve these
vital linkages. Such insights are pivotal in nurturing the relational integrity of MPNP, ensuring its long-term
viability as a sanctuary
for elephants and other coexisting life forms. By integrating connectivity modelling and habitat regeneration predictions, this
study advances conservation strategies. It highlights the importance of maintaining functional landscapes to preserve ecosystem
resilience, enhance biodiversity, and mitigate human-wildlife
conflicts in increasingly fragmented ecosystems.
